Just hours after polls ended Tuesday night, Democrats seized on scattered results across the country as evidence that voters are not favoring Republican policies and will return President Obama to the Oval Office in 2012.
They point, most excitedly, to the lopsided decision in Ohio to turn back anti-union efforts. The result, Mr. Obama’s top strategists said, is proof that the president’s most ardent supporters in a critical swing state are passionate, organized and ready to do battle on his behalf comming year.
“To get 270 electoral votes, we would continue to strive toward our core goals: build strong neighborhood teams; expand the electorate; reach out to voters in all communities, and drive voters to the polls,” said Jeremy Bird, the national field director for Mr. Obama’s election campaign, in a memo to be released Wednesday. “This week – one year before Election Day – and during yesterday’s elections across the country, we all took huge strides in accomplishing these goals.”
But the enthusiastic Democratic analysis leaves out some trouble spots for the party as it leads into a presidential and Congressional election year. And it may overstate the importance of victories that were heavily influenced by local factors that will be less important during a national campaign in 2012.
In Ohio, voters who refused the Republican governor’s anti-union law also easily passed a measure that refuses health care mandates in the state — another sign of how unpopular Mr. Obama’s health care measure is in many parts of the country.
“Ohioans voted down a state collective bargaining initiative but overwhelmingly voted to repudiate one of Obama’s signature first-term policies in Obamacare,” said Sean Spicer, the communications director for the Republican National Committee.
And the union vote in that state — while a significant victory for labor, a key constituency for the president — played out in recent weeks as a very Ohio contest — highly personal (about the governor, John R. Kasich) and heavily dependent on local dynamics involving the state’s firefighters and police officers.
Even Democrats in the state acknowledged on Tuesday evening that their victory may have been the result of a curious mix of local factors. Mr. Kasich, who was hailed a year ago as part of a new crop of Republican governors, was contrite at a news conference after the vote.
“It’s time to pause,” he said. “The people have spoken clearly.” He added that the people of his state “might have said it was too much too soon.”
But the biggest warning sign for Democrats may have been in Virginia, where major Republican gains in the state legislature highlighted just how competitive that state remains — and how difficult it will be for Mr. Obama to keep the state’s 13 electoral votes in his column next year.
Virginia Republicans made big gains in the House of Delegates, moving toward a two-thirds majority in the House. And they may have seized effective control of the State Senate from the Democrats; a Republican challenger in a crucial Northern Virginia exurb was just a handful of votes ahead of a Democratic incumbent Wednesday morning.
“Next year when we have a chance to hire a new president of the United States, I think these elections will give us a lot momentum going into next year,” the state’s Republican governor, Bob McDonnell, said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program.
Still, the Democratic excitement about the Ohio results and Democratic victories elsewhere may help to shape an otherwise gloomy narrative for their party and for the president in 2012.
Brad Woodhouse, the communications director for the Democratic National Committee, called the election results a “wide-scale repudiation of extreme and divisive Republican policies,” pointing to the defeat of an Arizona lawmaker who had backed anti-immigration policies and an anti-abortion measure in Mississippi to declare a fertilized egg to be a person.
“Republicans were rebuked for their partisan overreach and their anti-worker, anti-middle class, anti-immigrant and anti-women policies,” he said.
The word “overreach” was clearly the buzzword for Democrats on Wednesday morning as they tried to connect the dots between the various ballot measures and elections for local, state and national offices. In part, that is a mirror image of the successful Republican message from a year ago, when that party sought to make the Congressional elections a referendum on Mr. Obama.
Democrats also very quickly have suggested that Tuesday’s results were bad news for Mitt Romney and the other Republican candidates for president. Democrats were quick to point out that Mr. Romney heartily endorsed the anti-union law in Ohio (after at one point hesitating on the issue) and found himself on the losing side of a lopsided vote.
But the very important Tuesday result might be about process, not substance.
For more than a year, Democrats have been wringing their hands about the prospect that their voters are weary and lack enthusiasm. Party leaders have wondered: Can they be fired up again? And if so, how?
The Ohio vote could spell good news in that respect. A huge effort by national labor unions to fire up their workers was joined by a largely unnoticed push by Mr. Obama’s campaign to organize his supporters in the state. The result, Democrats said Wednesday, was proof that Mr. Obama’s supporters can be revved up and turned out.
“Previous night, in a variety of states, we have seen the fruits of these labors when we were able to help elect Democrats to local and statewide offices, as well as get a number of important ballot initiatives,” Mr. Bird said in his memo.
How will it all turn out?
That will not be totally clear for another year. And a lot can happen in that year to alter the dynamics that played out in races across the country Tuesday night.
Carl Forti, a veteran Republican operative who provide services to run political action committee’s on behalf of Republican candidates and causes, offered a sober assessment of the results.
“No real surprises and not sure it means much for coming year,” he said in an e-mail Wednesday morning. “A year is totally in politics.”
They point, most excitedly, to the lopsided decision in Ohio to turn back anti-union efforts. The result, Mr. Obama’s top strategists said, is proof that the president’s most ardent supporters in a critical swing state are passionate, organized and ready to do battle on his behalf comming year.
“To get 270 electoral votes, we would continue to strive toward our core goals: build strong neighborhood teams; expand the electorate; reach out to voters in all communities, and drive voters to the polls,” said Jeremy Bird, the national field director for Mr. Obama’s election campaign, in a memo to be released Wednesday. “This week – one year before Election Day – and during yesterday’s elections across the country, we all took huge strides in accomplishing these goals.”
But the enthusiastic Democratic analysis leaves out some trouble spots for the party as it leads into a presidential and Congressional election year. And it may overstate the importance of victories that were heavily influenced by local factors that will be less important during a national campaign in 2012.
In Ohio, voters who refused the Republican governor’s anti-union law also easily passed a measure that refuses health care mandates in the state — another sign of how unpopular Mr. Obama’s health care measure is in many parts of the country.
“Ohioans voted down a state collective bargaining initiative but overwhelmingly voted to repudiate one of Obama’s signature first-term policies in Obamacare,” said Sean Spicer, the communications director for the Republican National Committee.
And the union vote in that state — while a significant victory for labor, a key constituency for the president — played out in recent weeks as a very Ohio contest — highly personal (about the governor, John R. Kasich) and heavily dependent on local dynamics involving the state’s firefighters and police officers.
Even Democrats in the state acknowledged on Tuesday evening that their victory may have been the result of a curious mix of local factors. Mr. Kasich, who was hailed a year ago as part of a new crop of Republican governors, was contrite at a news conference after the vote.
“It’s time to pause,” he said. “The people have spoken clearly.” He added that the people of his state “might have said it was too much too soon.”
But the biggest warning sign for Democrats may have been in Virginia, where major Republican gains in the state legislature highlighted just how competitive that state remains — and how difficult it will be for Mr. Obama to keep the state’s 13 electoral votes in his column next year.
Virginia Republicans made big gains in the House of Delegates, moving toward a two-thirds majority in the House. And they may have seized effective control of the State Senate from the Democrats; a Republican challenger in a crucial Northern Virginia exurb was just a handful of votes ahead of a Democratic incumbent Wednesday morning.
“Next year when we have a chance to hire a new president of the United States, I think these elections will give us a lot momentum going into next year,” the state’s Republican governor, Bob McDonnell, said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program.
Still, the Democratic excitement about the Ohio results and Democratic victories elsewhere may help to shape an otherwise gloomy narrative for their party and for the president in 2012.
Brad Woodhouse, the communications director for the Democratic National Committee, called the election results a “wide-scale repudiation of extreme and divisive Republican policies,” pointing to the defeat of an Arizona lawmaker who had backed anti-immigration policies and an anti-abortion measure in Mississippi to declare a fertilized egg to be a person.
“Republicans were rebuked for their partisan overreach and their anti-worker, anti-middle class, anti-immigrant and anti-women policies,” he said.
The word “overreach” was clearly the buzzword for Democrats on Wednesday morning as they tried to connect the dots between the various ballot measures and elections for local, state and national offices. In part, that is a mirror image of the successful Republican message from a year ago, when that party sought to make the Congressional elections a referendum on Mr. Obama.
Democrats also very quickly have suggested that Tuesday’s results were bad news for Mitt Romney and the other Republican candidates for president. Democrats were quick to point out that Mr. Romney heartily endorsed the anti-union law in Ohio (after at one point hesitating on the issue) and found himself on the losing side of a lopsided vote.
But the very important Tuesday result might be about process, not substance.
For more than a year, Democrats have been wringing their hands about the prospect that their voters are weary and lack enthusiasm. Party leaders have wondered: Can they be fired up again? And if so, how?
The Ohio vote could spell good news in that respect. A huge effort by national labor unions to fire up their workers was joined by a largely unnoticed push by Mr. Obama’s campaign to organize his supporters in the state. The result, Democrats said Wednesday, was proof that Mr. Obama’s supporters can be revved up and turned out.
“Previous night, in a variety of states, we have seen the fruits of these labors when we were able to help elect Democrats to local and statewide offices, as well as get a number of important ballot initiatives,” Mr. Bird said in his memo.
How will it all turn out?
That will not be totally clear for another year. And a lot can happen in that year to alter the dynamics that played out in races across the country Tuesday night.
Carl Forti, a veteran Republican operative who provide services to run political action committee’s on behalf of Republican candidates and causes, offered a sober assessment of the results.
“No real surprises and not sure it means much for coming year,” he said in an e-mail Wednesday morning. “A year is totally in politics.”
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